Project rationale: Predicting the responses of ecological communities to rapid environmental change is becoming increasingly important. Making good predictions is challenging because of the potential complexity of interactions among large numbers of species. Additionally, developing robust theory requires well-studied test cases (datasets). While such test cases exist in several long-term forest study systems, there is much less knowledge available for other biomes, e.g. the alpine. The alpine biome also is one of the most vulnerable to ongoing climate changes.

Project scope of work: This project will conduct long-term monitoring of plant community dynamics in the Colorado alpine biome, assembling a unique long-term record of population and community change during a period of rapid environmental change. The project will focus on integrating species-scale demographic models with community-scale models. The project will test hypotheses related to three core questions:

1. What are the roles of spatial neighborhoods, metacommunity/dispersal processes, and ontogenetic/size structure in community assembly?
2. How do these processes influence community dynamics in a variable environment?
3. Can community states in the future be forecasted, and with what uncertainty? The project uses a long-term alpine tundra study system (at 3,500 m elevation in the Rocky Mountains). Two datasets are collected across 100 vegetation plots: (a) annual whole-community demography (survival, size change (growth), fecundity, recruitment) for all individuals including seedlings of all 20 co-occurring species, including georeferencing; and (b) annual remotely sensed multispectral imagery of all plots, obtained during peak flowering, that can be used to increase dataset size via machine learning. To address (Q1), the project will carry out additional seed bank and seed rain studies, then use these data and the Core Data to test hypotheses about species interactions. To address (Q2), the project will build integral projection models and individual based models for all species taking into account density dependence, species interactions, and temporally variable biotic and abiotic context. To address (Q3), the project will then provide falsifiable forecasts with uncertainties for community dynamics under multiple climate change scenarios.

The postdoctoral researcher’s responsibilities will include:

• Collecting the Core Data as part of a field team each year;
• Designing and implementing the seed bank and seed rain project components;
• Co-mentoring 1-2 undergraduate researchers each year;
• Building integral projection models and/or individual-based models based on project data;
• Working on a team to coordinate data entry, quality control, and archiving;
• Presenting research findings at one conference per year;
• Preparing manuscripts for publication, as lead author.

Mentoring
The postdoctoral researcher would be based in the research laboratory of PI Dr. Blonder on the UC Berkeley campus. They would also be co-mentored remotely by Dr. Ian Breckheimer (co-PI and staff scientist, Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory) and Dr. Roberto Salguero-Gómez (associate professor, University of Oxford). They would receive additional support from collaborators Dr. Stephen Ellner (professor, Cornell University) and Dr. Courtenay Ray (postdoctoral researcher, University of Wyoming).

The postdoctoral researcher would meet regularly with the PI and the project team, and would participate in regular goal-setting and development plan activities. They would have the opportunity to participate in campus data science, wilderness first aid, faculty development, and other professional development opportunities. They would have the opportunity to guest lecture in the PI’s undergraduate ecology class, and to mentor undergraduate research students. They would be able to use project funds to attend one USA-based conference each year.

The PI’s group provides a supportive work environment that recognizes and supports people of diverse identities and needs. There are currently ~6 people in the group; lab meetings and peer mentoring occur regularly, as do social activities. The PI has had leadership roles in departmental anti-racism and field safety committees and will ensure that these themes are also priorities in the research group.

Working at Berkeley
Berkeley is on Ohlone land. The area has a mild year-round climate and offers an opportunity to be close to the diverse communities in Oakland, San Francisco and other nearby cities. The Berkeley campus is directly accessible from the SFO and OAK international airports by public transit (BART trains), and car-free daily living is possible. The ecological diversity of California is also readily accessible from the city.

Fieldwork in Colorado
The field site is located on a high alpine ridgeline on Mt. Baldy in the Gunnison National Forest on traditional Ute lands, a few miles from the Maroon Bells / Snowmass Wilderness Area. Access to the field site is via a scenic hike; the field station itself is located in a valley surrounded by high peaks, with numerous outdoor recreation opportunities within walking distance .The field station typically hosts 100+ people each summer and provides additional community and support to researchers.

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