New paper: Navigation between initial and desired community states using shortcuts

We just published a study in Ecology Letters exploring how to intentionally shift a community from one state to another, more desired, state.
You can read it at the journal or download a PDF.

The study lays out a conceptual framework that involves making small nudges that allow jumping between basins of attraction. The work is inspired by the game Snakes and Ladders, where the player can take shortcuts to move around the board; similarly, particular actions can be taken that allow one to usefully jump from one state to another. By stitching together several jumps, it is often possible to reach a desired state at lower cost than via any other approach.

A few examples of such actions are shown below for simulated dynamics based on real datasets, including an intriguing case where one can remove an undesired pathogen (Clostridium difficile) via low-effort indirect actions.

There are also some intriguing implications for how communities are statistically likely to assemble and dis-assemble (see Fig S8/S9 in the supplement) – see the below ‘state diagrams’ showing that some states (dots, ordered with higher richness at top) are more easily reached through certain types of actions.

I am very excited about this work and think it may offer a starting point for eventual applications to real-world community ecology problems. The text also covers some important ethics/safety issues related to implementing these ideas in the future.